Excess deaths by cause and place of death in England and Wales during the first year of COVID-19.

Using officially registered weekly mortality data, we estimate a counterfactual death count in the absence of the pandemic and we calculate the number of excess deaths in England and Wales during 2020 after the pandemic onset. We also break down those figures by region, age, gender, place of death, and cause of death. Our results suggest that there were 82,428 (95% Confidence interval [CI]: 78,402 to 86,415) excess deaths, and 88.9% (95% CI: 84.8%-93.5%) of them was due to COVID-19, suggesting that non-COVID-19 excess mortality may have been slightly higher that what has been previously estimated. Regarding deaths not due to COVID-19, persons older than 45 years old who died at their homes, mainly from heart diseases and cancer, were the most affected group. Across all causes of death, there was increased excess mortality from dementia and Alzheimer's disease, diabetes, Parkinson's disease and heart-related disease, while at the same period there was a reduction in deaths from pneumonia and influenza, stroke as well as infectious diseases and accidents. Supported by regional panel event estimates, our results highlight how measures to mitigate the pandemic spread and ease the pressure on healthcare service systems may adversely affect out-of-hospital mortality from other causes.

The short-term impact of the 2020 pandemic lockdown on employment in Greece.

This paper analyzes the short-term employment impact of the COVID-19 lockdown in Greece during the first few months following the pandemic onset. During the initial lockdown period, aggregate employment was lower by almost 9 percentage points than it would have been expected based on pre-pandemic employment trends. However, due to a government intervention that prohibited layoffs, this was not due to higher separation rates. The overall short-term employment impact was due to lower hiring rates. To uncover the mechanism behind this, we use a difference-in-differences framework, and show that tourism-related activities, which are exposed to seasonal variation, had significantly lower employment entry rates in the months following the pandemic onset compared to non-tourism activities. Our results highlight the relevance of the timing of unanticipated shocks in economies with strong seasonal patterns, and the relative effectiveness of policy interventions to partly absorb the consequences of such shocks.

Religion, social interactions, and COVID-19 incidence in Western Germany.

This paper investigates how social interactions, as shaped by religious denomination, are related to COVID-19 incidence and associated mortality in Western Germany. We observe that the number of infections and deaths during the early pandemic phase were much higher in predominantly Catholic counties with arguably stronger family and social ties. The relationship was confirmed at the county level through numerous robustness checks, and after controlling for a series of characteristics and county fixed effects. At the individual level, we confirmed that Catholics, relative to non-Catholics, have tighter and more frequent interactions with their family and friends. Moreover, the intensity of social interaction was able to partially explain the relationship between COVID-19 incidence and share of Catholics at the county level. Our results highlight the number of dimensions that have to be taken into account when designing and implementing mitigation measures in the early stages of disease outbreaks.

Reacting Quickly and Protecting Jobs: The Short-Term Impacts of the COVID-19 Lockdown on the Greek Labor Market

From the Abstract: "This paper uses administrative, survey, and online vacancy data to analyze the short-term labor market impacts of the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] lockdown in Greece. The analysis finds that flows into unemployment have not increased;instead, separations were lower than would have been expected given trends in recent years. At the same time, employment was about 12 percent lower at the end of June than it would have been without the pandemic. The interrupted time-series and difference-in-differences estimates indicate that this was due to a dramatic slowdown in hiring during months when job creation typically peaks in normal years, mostly in tourism. Although the reasons for these patterns are not formally tested, the analysis suggests that the measures introduced to mitigate the effects of the crisis in Greece played an important role. These measures prohibited layoffs in industries affected by the crisis and tied the major form of income support to the maintenance of employment relationships."